Finally Talking

We read in a report from The Media Line that Iran and the US are talking about Iran’s nuclear program. US President Donald Trump made it clear that getting weapons is off the table:

“I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country,” President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday, one day before talks between the US and Iran were set to begin. “But they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

He also mentioned that Israel and the US will take military action if no deal is worked out:

That statement came days after President Trump warned that the US would resort to military force if the talks fail, saying that Iran “would face great danger” in such a scenario. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, it’ll be the leader of that,” Trump said of a potential strike on Iran, leaving no doubt as to Washington’s expectations.

Israel is also deciding what they will do if the talks drag out or if Iran says they will destroy the nuclear program on their own:

As diplomatic moves between the US and Iran quietly unfold, Israel is watching with deep concern. The US’s closest ally in the Middle East is calculating risks and considering the prospect that once again, it may have to act alone to combat Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue is possible—but only in a scenario where Iran agrees for the US to destroy the components of its nuclear program. If Iran chooses to drag out talks, Netanyahu said, “the option is military.”

And if military action happens, the US has a lot of assets in the area to carry that out:

In a notable show of force, the Trump administration has stationed B-2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia, a remote US base in the Indian Ocean far beyond the range of most Iranian missiles. That move underscores Washington’s readiness to strike if talks collapse and signals to Tehran that military options remain firmly on the table, which may offer Israel some reassurance.

Iran put out word they would take out a US base but that base is way out of their range. But the US can easily hit Iran from that same base:

Iran claims it could target the base, but military analysts point out that Diego Garcia is over 3,000 miles from Iranian territory, well beyond the reach of Iran’s precision missiles. In contrast, US long-range bombers stationed there can easily strike deep inside Iran.

According to one source, no one has high hopes for these talks:

This high-stakes posturing plays out as both sides prepare for a pivotal meeting for nuclear talks in Oman today. According to Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iran at The Washington Institute, neither side believes the negotiations will go smoothly. “It will begin on shaky grounds and will probably end on shaky grounds—unless an unexpected major proposal or concession is put on the table, which I find unlikely,” Nadimi told The Media Line.

A Quick Resolution

In light of both sides pushing for a deal that suits them, the US wants any deal to be done rapidly:

With President Trump’s close circle laying the groundwork for renewed diplomacy, the administration is pushing for a decisive confrontation or a quick resolution.

As in any administration you have those who see war as the only option and others who lean towards diplomacy:

Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert teaching at King’s College London, described an administration divided between hawks and pragmatists, with some figures determined to pursue a resolution. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance are the top figures interested in making a deal with Iran, Krieg said.

Krieg doesn’t see Iran willing to give up its nuclear program:

“They want a verification regime that caps enrichment and prevents nuclear weaponization,” he told The Media Line. “But if the deal demands that Iran abandon its missile program or pull back from its regional alliances, Iran will walk away.”

Going back to Israel, they don’t see talks going anywhere:

Meanwhile, in Israel, pressure is building. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that Israel believes the time has come for action. Especially after Iran carried out a series of direct strikes on Israel in 2024, “Israel sees no more room for negotiating,” Diker told The Media Line.

I agree with Diker because Iran’s true intentions are clearly known and their strategy of both stalling and dividing allies is playing out before us in real time:

“The current diplomatic moment with the Islamic Republic of Iran is a continuation of its long-standing deception warfare,” Diker said. “The Iranians are all too happy to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States, just as they did with the Obama administration.”

Once again it looks like Israel will have to go it alone against Iran which will strain relationships with the US:

Israelis are deeply skeptical that diplomacy can succeed, particularly if the outcome resembles the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran Program, said that Israel could find itself boxed in unless a new agreement significantly dismantles Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

“If the deal just limits enrichment and allows inspections, but doesn’t dismantle the program or curb missile development, Israel may be unable to respond without undermining its ties to the US,” Citrinowicz told The Media Line.

Dike also sees Iran being as weak as they have ever been after the Basheer regime fell and Israel weakened Hezbollah. He thinks Israel sees this and won’t wait too long before they attack even if its on their own:

According to Diker, Iran has played its hand. “There is still significant danger ahead, and Israel is prepared to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat with direct military action at the right time,” he said. He described Iran’s current position as “exposed” and “naked,” noting that proxies like Hezbollah and Syria have been significantly weakened.

I might add that Iran knows this salient fact, too. And that’s at least one reason why they want these talks to drag on for months.