Who Is Winning?

In an interview with Reserve Brigadier General Danny Vanen from CBN.com we learn how he thinks the various wars with Hamas and Hezbollah are going:

Jerusalem Dayline: Welcome to Jerusalem Dayline, Danny.

Brig. Gen. Danny Vanen: Thank you very much, Julie.

The topic of who is winning the wars in Israel was brought up:

Jerusalem Dayline: Israel is currently in an awkward pause in the war, yet Hamas is claiming victory. Did Hamas or Hezbollah win, or did Israel win?

Vanen thinks that both the terrorist groups lost and gives examples to support his view:

Brig. Gen. Danny Vanen: First of all, they definitely lost. If you judge by military terms alone, Hezbollah was brought to its knees. It lost all of its manpower, infrastructure, and weapons.

If you look at Gaza, Hamas was almost completely eliminated. They are counting casualties in the thousands. They lost all their tunnels—tunnels that they spent millions in foreign aid building over 20 years—and most of them are now destroyed.

He concludes that saying Hamas is winning is to lie, but he admits that the mission isn’t won just yet:

The only way one could say Hamas won is by pushing a false narrative, which is simply not correct. However, I must admit that the war is not yet finished.

When fighting a terror organization, victory is not just about eliminating activists or weapons. Hamas and similar groups operate based on jihadist ideology. To sustain that ideology, they need two things: land and control over the population. Unfortunately, both elements are still in place.

Part of the reason for this is that the former administration pressured Israel to supply Hamas with food, fuel, and even cigarettes, allowing them to remain in power. Additionally, the IDF has so far refrained from fully conquering the land. Until these two factors are addressed, the war is not over.

According to the former general, Israel needs to leave Hamas not only without weapons, but also without land. Deradicalizing the people will most likely have to start with the Gazans relocating as well. It sounds like US President Trump is onto something because his plan accomplishes both.

The Hostage Crisis

CBN then moves on to the fate of the remaining living hostages:

Jerusalem Dayline: One of the biggest unresolved issues for Israel is the fate of the hostages. How can Israel get them back?

Vanen states what is plainly obvious and that is hostages are a big issue in Israeli culture:

Brig. Gen. Danny Vanen: This is a huge issue because, in Israel, we cherish life, while Hamas glorifies death. Over the past decades, we have seen this contrast play out time and again.

So far, we have played into their strategy by allowing them to release hostages in small numbers, turning these releases into public spectacles that make Hamas appear as if they are still in control.

The general thinks that to get the hostages released Israel needs to alter their approach and force Hamas to do things their way:

I believe we need to change our approach. To bring the hostages home, we must start using our full military power and leave Hamas with only two options: either they surrender the hostages under military pressure, or they leave Gaza and release them.

It makes sense on paper, but Hamas would rather be martyred than surrender the hostages and they are never going to leave Gaza unless they do it in body bags. But putting pressure on them rather than the other way around makes total sense. Vanen thinks that to continue to do things Hamas’ way will only bring pain to Israel:

If we continue with the current approach, we will be forced to endure more psychological games, and Israeli society cannot bear such consequences indefinitely.

He thinks a new approach is needed to get the hostages back and the new Chief of Staff will bring that:

Jerusalem Dayline: You were the former commander and a friend of Israel’s new Chief of Staff. How do you think things might change moving forward?

Brig. Gen. Danny Vanen: I think things will change dramatically.

The general explains why he thinks a new view will be seen with Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in place:

For the past 50 years, nearly all Chiefs of Staff have come from the same background. Out of 14 former chiefs, 11 came from either special units or the Paratroopers, which created a certain mindset where they all thought the same way.

Zamir isn’t from either of those two military branches:

The new Chief of Staff, whom I know well, comes from the armored corps—specifically from tanks. He sees things differently from a strategic military perspective. He is bringing in fresh thinking and has already indicated that he will make major changes in the General Staff.

Danen sees Zamir unleashing the IDF to do exactly what is needed in his mind:

I believe he will use the full strength of the IDF, which will help us accomplish the two key missions I mentioned earlier: taking the land and removing Hamas from power.

The former general makes sense and I think that the next phase of this war will also be the last one, especially for Hamas. With 400,000 Israeli troops moving into place to retake Gaza things will change quickly. But I also see Iran and its proxies preparing to attack Israel to prevent Hamas from being eradicated. Rather than watching idly by Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels and any other of Iran’s proxies including the Iranians themselves will try and take down Israel with an all-out aerial assault that the various IDF defense systems cannot totally stop. Israel will be hit hard, but their response will devastate their attackers and end the terrorist threats once and for all. Am I wrong? It’s not just my opinion, it is exactly what the Psalm 83 war lays out will happen. And the more these events transpire, the more that war becomes a very strong likelihood. So, yes, pray for the peace of Jerusalem. Now, more than ever.