GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 464

Fireworks In January

Just A Lot Of Talk

A lot has changed since the last hostage release deal was accepted. Back in November of 2023 Hamas was still dealing from a position of power. Now those leaders are all pushing up daisies so this current deal making puzzles me. The one part is that Joe Biden thinks he still has political power to tell Prime Minister Netanyahu to get a deal done now. And another part is that some think Netanyahu is letting him do it. We are a week from Donald Trump getting into office and Israel would be stupid to give up 1000 dangerous prisoners for only a third of the remaining hostages, hostages that Hamas is saying they don’t even know where they are. I call shenanigans on the reports that a deal is close but here is what one report that says from The Jerusalem Post:

Hamas's unexpected flexibility during negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza surprised Israeli delegates, a source from Hamas told Saudi news outlet Asharq on Saturday.

“We are close to announcing an agreement and a [hostage deal],” said a source claiming to be familiar with the negotiations, “but this hinges on Israel’s awaited response. If no new Israeli conditions are introduced, the agreement will be ready for announcement through the mediators”—referring to Egypt, Qatar, and the United States.

A deal is close according to Hamas sources. Of course they will release that since they look like the reasonable ones. How anyone can do anything but laugh at the first sentence where Hamas pats itself on the back for being flexible and Israel is surprised by it. Seriously? This smacks of irresponsible journalism, but I suppose the site can put it out there so they can look balanced. Another quote tells us that Israel is holding up a deal:

Sources estimated that “by Sunday evening, it should become clear whether a deal in Gaza will be reached or if Israel will revert to imposing new conditions, resetting negotiations to square one.”

Once again, Hamas is throwing shade on Israel for not accepting what they want. In an article from The Times Of Israel we see just exactly what they want:

While the exact details of the deal’s outline have yet to be publicly confirmed, a Palestinian prisoner advocacy group asserted on Sunday that the first stage would entail the release of 25 Israeli hostages in exchange for 48 Palestinian security prisoners who were freed in the Shalit deal in 2011 and incarcerated again since, along with 200 prisoners serving life sentences, and another 1,000 detainees including women, children and wounded prisoners.

In a rare interview with Ramallah’s Maan news agency, Prisoners Club director Qadura Fares added that all of the Palestinian prisoners would be allowed to return to their homes in East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, except those serving life sentences, who would most likely be deported to either Qatar, Egypt or Turkey.

So 1,248 terrorists and their families for 25 hostages? This is a good deal? I think not.

Netanyahu Holds All The Cards

Netanyahu has Biden and Hamas right where he wants them and I can’t see where he has to do anything now. Wait a week and what the Times reports will happen:

Trump, who enters the White House on January 20, has warned that there will be “all hell to pay” if a hostage deal has not been settled before he begins his second term, although he has refused to elaborate on what that would entail.

The next US National Security Advisor echoed Trumps warning:

His threat was reiterated by incoming national security adviser Mik Waltz on Sunday, who warned Hamas that the terms for a hostage deal would only get worse if it waits until Trump enters office.

“Let’s allow our hostages to be set free. I want to see them walking across the tarmac, or at a minimum, some type of agreement before inauguration because President Trump is serious,” Waltz told ABC’s “This Week.”

“Any deal will only get worse for Hamas, and there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East if we continue to have this kind of hostage diplomacy,” he added.

I’m certain Hamas is hearing all these statements and may want a deal, but their arrogance is actually killing any chance for one because they are asking for more and more prisoners to be released right away. That smacks of desperation and it also tells me that they know only one phase of any deal will happen. Again, why in the world would Netanyahu agree to one before Trump takes office? It makes now sense no matter how you look at it. The incoming US Vice President also weighed in on the issues:

Meanwhile, US Vice President-elect JD Vance appeared to reveal the practical implication of Trump’s threat that “all hell will break loose.”

“It means enabling the Israelis to knock out the final couple of battalions of Hamas and their leadership. It means very aggressive sanctions and financial penalties on those who are supporting terrorist organizations in the Middle East. It means actually doing the job of American leadership,” Vance told ‘FOX News Sunday.’

Taking hostages always works for these terrorists which is why they do it:

The IDF has said that it has yet to dismantle the final two of Hamas’s 24 battalions in Gaza, but that was because they are believed to be holding many of the remaining 98 hostages in central Gaza. Accordingly, the IDF has avoided operating there en masse, so as not to risk the lives of the hostages, given that a number of them have been accidentally killed in IDF operations or were executed by their Hamas captors when they feared Israeli troops were approaching.

Vance didn’t give details on sanctions, but they would be part of the pressure a Trump White House would impose:

Vance did not elaborate on the financial sanctions that the incoming Trump administration has planned against Hamas, but the Biden administration has already levied a host of sanctions against the terror group and has issued arrest warrants for several of its leaders.

He also noted why a hostage deal is even being sought now:

The incoming vice president asserted that Trump’s threat of “all hell to pay” in the Mideast if the hostages are not released is what sparked recent progress in the ongoing hostage talks.

“We’re hopeful there’s going to be a deal that struck toward the very end of Biden’s administration — maybe the last day or two,” Vance says. “But regardless of when that deal is struck, it will be because people are terrified that there are going to be consequences for Hamas.”

If what Hamas is expecting now is any indication they aren’t serious about a deal. Is it because there are few hostages still alive and they only have 25 to offer overall? If so, I would wait and let Trump lead the charge. Also, if no deal is on the horizon when the inauguration happens, I would be surprised if an all out attack doesn’t come from all sides. Really, that could be the ruse happening now with hostage talks. They’re just a smoke screen while all the terrorists proxies and Iran ready their troops. I have news for them. Israel isn’t going to wait for permission to hit them back anymore. Fireworks in January is a very real possibility.