GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 438

Large Gaps Remain

Not That Close

When will we ever learn that anonymous sources are not wanting their names known for one main reason: they are notorious for being wrong. Such is the case with these reports that a deal to get back the hostages being held in Gaza is imminent. Just yesterday all I read was that real breakthroughs were happening and the gaps between the two sides were being bridged. There was even one report the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was getting ready to fly to Cairo to finalize a deal which was nixed. Neither Netanyahu nor Saudi Arabia thinks a deal is close to happening:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and Saudi Arabia have both denied a report that claimed there has been a “breakthrough” in US-brokered normalization talks between Jerusalem and Riyadh.

The Saudis are saying that demands for a Palestinian state are being lessened in the hopes of thawing out the cold status of a deal, but the PM isn’t willing to do the same:

Haaretz claimed earlier that Saudi Arabia has given up its longtime demand for the creation of a Palestinian state as a precondition for a normalization of ties with Israel, instead making do with a vague Israeli promise of a “pathway toward a Palestinian state.”

After right-wing reporters and politicians, including Avigdor Liberman understood the report to mean Netanyahu has agreed to promise a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister’s Office calls the report “a complete lie,” adding: “Prime Minister Netanyahu has worked and is working against the establishment of a Palestinian state that will endanger Israel’s security.”

In short, we’re nowhere close to getting a hostage deal done:

Meanwhile, the Saudis also strongly deny the report, saying there has been no breakthrough.

“The notion that the kingdom’s leadership has somehow modified its longstanding commitment to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is equally baseless,” a statement issued to reporters by an unnamed Saudi official says.

But the Saudis continue to tell us that they are trying as if getting an A for effort will do much:

“The kingdom of Saudi Arabia will continue to work towards ending the war in Gaza and helping the Palestinian people achieve their right to an independent state,” the statement adds.

Weeks Away

While those who favor Hamas are still touting the closeness of a deal, the Israeli side is not as hopeful:

As various reports, mainly in Arabic media outlets and citing Palestinian sources, tout breakthroughs in the negotiations for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal to end the war in Gaza after more than 14 months, Israeli sources cited by Hebrew media are far more skeptical, saying a deal is weeks away and still faces major hurdles.

There are huge gaps they say and they’re right with one being Hamas surviving:

The Walla news site, citing three unnamed senior Israeli sources familiar with the talks, says that while progress has been made in recent weeks, there are still big gaps between the sides, chiefly regarding Hamas’s insistence that any hostage deal lead to the end of the war.

“A deal isn’t around the corner,” one source is quoted as saying.

Some of these sources are even blaming Israeli leadership for tossing out glimmers of hope:

Another criticizes optimistic remarks made by senior officials such as Defense Minister Israel Katz: “It doesn’t help the negotiations and also misleads the public and gives false hope.”

And Hamas isn’t being as agreeable as they are portrayed by some now:

Similarly, Channel 12 news quotes unnamed senior Israeli sources as saying that, while Hamas is showing a will to reach a deal, there are still considerable disagreements on core issues that will take time to overcome.

Additionally, a Palestinian source cited by the Kan public broadcaster says the reports of an imminent deal are “exaggerated and overly optimistic.”

Even the US is trying to paint lipstick on a pig in referring to a hostage deal:

The Times of Israel reported yesterday that US President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team has been working together with outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration in the past weeks to try to secure a hostage release and ceasefire deal before Trump enters office. The initiative has made progress in recent days, though major obstacles remain, three US, Israeli, and Arab officials have told The Times of Israel.

Can we just stop with all the rays of sunshine being blown up our behinds? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, we’re nowhere close to a deal that ends the war and gets all the hostages back. There may be a first phase that releases 30 or less hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and a boatload of dangerous terrorists being let loose to terrorize the Jews but getting them all out isn’t going to happen. Common sense will tell you that if you’re willing to recall what both sides are wanting in a deal. Don’t get me wrong, I do want them released, but when Hamas wants the war to end with them still very much alive and functioning and Israel doesn’t want even a hint of terrorists living called Hamas, well those are some very large gaps. Talk of a 60 day ceasefire and the IDF leaving Gaza to allow for the rest of the hostages to be released just isn’t going to occur. Neither is Hamas surrendering, laying down their weapons, and releasing the prisoners they have. Iran, which knows a thing or two about holding hostages and then letting them go after a new President threatens them with annihilation should send the word to Hamas to pony up all the hostages before January 20th of 2025. What do I think will happen? These terrorists have too much pride to give up and admit defeat. They will go down fighting looking down the barrel of soldiers, regardless if it is the Special ops of the US military, the IDF or both. Again, I’d rather see a more peaceful outcome, but after 438 days of this war, I’m not so hopeful.