Trump Changed Everything

We know that the reelection of Donald Trump in November of 2024 created a climate of change whether you agree with it or not. When it comes to Israel, Trump is definitely making a difference as we see in an article from The Media Line:

Negotiations to secure the release of Israeli hostages from the hands of the Hamas terrorist group are at an impasse, as US President Donald Trump renewed his threat against the organization, warning Wednesday night “it is OVER” for Hamas if the hostages are not released.

And the incoming Israeli chief of staff sees war this year:

Hours before the American president issued his warning to Hamas, a new Israeli military chief was sworn in. The new chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, said 2025 would be “a year of war,” with a focus on handling threats from Gaza and Iran.

Trump is very open about his support of Israel:

Israel’s moves on both fronts will continue to take careful consideration of the US position. Since President Trump entered office, dynamics between Israel and the US have changed, with the new US administration offering significant support to Israel.

But now decisions need to be made by both Israel and Trump:

“All the players are at an intersection,” Gabriel Ben-Dor, an expert on political science and national security at the University of Haifa, told The Media Line. “Israel has to decide whether it wants to intensify the war on Gaza or secure the release of the hostages first, and Trump has to decide how to act upon his threats.”

A little history brings us up to speed on this:

President Trump was elected at the height of the Israel-Hamas war, at a time when talks to reach a ceasefire and a hostage release deal were stalled. His threat that there would be “hell to pay” if the Israeli hostages were not released helped secure a temporary ceasefire that expired over the weekend. During the six-week lull in fighting, 38 hostages were released. In return, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and allowed for an increase in the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Israeli forces withdrew from most of the Gaza Strip, maintaining a presence at two critical crossings in the territory. Despite the ceasefire officially having ended, neither side has resumed fighting.

Now, Hamas is resisting a bridge offer made by the US and agreed to by Israel. But Trump wants to take over Gaza and relocate the Gazans until the area is rebuilt, a notion that Arabs reject while offering a plan of their own:

Egypt, a key player in the region and one of the mediators between Israel and Hamas, then countered with a proposal that would keep Palestinians in Gaza but remove Hamas from power, eventually restoring the rule of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the territory. President Trump ruled out the proposal, and it is unlikely Israel will accept it. Israel is demanding Hamas be both disarmed and removed from power, but it also refuses to see the PA reinstated, viewing it as a supporter of terrorism.

Trump Needs To Decide

I’ve said this before and now this article brings it up as well. If Trump doesn’t start acting his reputation will suffer:

The US president now has to decide how to act on his threat in order to maintain his credibility.

“Trump can provide Israel with more lethal weapons and give it free rein to act as it sees fit in Gaza, including a strict blockade and denial of humanitarian aid,” Ben-Dor said. “He can also apply intense pressure on Hamas supporters such as Turkey and Qatar and force them to coerce Hamas into giving up power. It will not be simple, and it will not happen overnight.”

He said that President Trump knows he will lose credibility if he fails to “deliver on his threats.”

Perhaps Trump should dial back the rhetoric and just continue to support Israel:

According to Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, the president’s most powerful tool is his blanket support for Israel.

“Trump has freed Israel of all of the reins and restrictions,” Michael told The Media Line. “Israel is being given all the legitimacy to conquer the whole of the Gaza Strip, impose military rule, and evacuate civilian population from there. Trump is willing to let Israel do this, taking into account the dire consequences for Gaza, while letting Israel use extensive amounts of force.”

As diplomacy works its way out, there is no denying that neither Israel nor Hamas agree on how the war ends, an impasse that will never be ended:

“Israel and Hamas’ end games can never be reconciled,” Michael said. “Even if Israel is willing to release an even greater number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for more hostages and would agree to stop the war, it cannot accept the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza.”

Trump, for his part is giving Israel military support and this only supports Israel’s decision to hit Hamas intensely next:

Last weekend, the US also approved a massive weapons shipment to Israel, giving the Jewish state greater ability to threaten Hamas.

These changes coincide with the appointment of Zamir as the commander of the Israeli military. Israel media has reported that Zamir ordered the commanders in charge of the fighting in the Gaza Strip to draw out more aggressive plans for the resumption of fighting.

And the decision to put Zamir in charge is not an accident. Trump wants Hamas taken out and now the military leadership appears to agree:

Zamir replaced Herzi Halevi, who is seen as one of the main people responsible for the failure to thwart Hamas’ surprise attack. Halevi was also criticized throughout the war on Gaza that the military was not acting decisively enough.

“If Israel is still looking to topple Hamas and get rid of it, the new chief of staff needs to create a new, more effective, more alert and more lethal military,” Ben-Dor said. “Things could have been done differently, more swiftly with more lethality and with a greater concentration of forces in critical mass areas with more use of surprise elements.”

The War Needs To End

We can debate how we got here and how the previous US administration constantly tied Israel’s hands every step of the way, that doesn’t change the fact that the hostages are running out of time and Hamas will never release them all. The goals of the war for Israel have yet to be met:

Israel’s war on Hamas has now entered its 17th month and is the longest war fought in Israel’s 77-year history. With the goals of toppling Hamas and releasing all of the hostages not yet achieved, the war is not near to conclusion.

According to Michael the next phase of the war needs to be quicker:

“The next round of fighting will be much shorter, much more intense, and its result will be Gaza without Hamas,” Michael said. “Only then, when Hamas will not be an active and effective sovereign factor the discussion on the future of the Gaza Strip can begin.”

As we already know, it is these very hostages that complicate the ending of the war. But the hostage situation is vastly different from the start of the war in 2023. This could actually make their rescue easier:

The presence of Israeli hostages in Gaza has severely complicated the effort to eradicate Hamas. Hamas took over 250 hostages during its offensive, the majority of them now released. Of the 59 still in captivity, at least 35 of them are believed to be dead.

“Any move by the IDF takes this into account and this was one of the factors that bogged down its progress,” Ben-Dor said. “But Israel now has more intelligence about what is going on there, and there are also fewer hostages alive. This changes the picture.”

And Iran and their nuclear ambitions aren't making things easier. And the US is in the mix there, too:

Hovering above the Gaza conundrum is the fate of the Iranian nuclear program and how the US and Israel will respond to what is believed to be its massive acceleration toward nuclear power.

A day after Zamir said the IDF would focus on both Gaza and Iran, the Israeli Air Force held a joint exercise with the American Air Force.

“The forces practiced operational coordination between the two militaries to enhance their ability to address various regional threats,” read a statement by the Israeli military released Thursday, in what could be seen as a hint towards Tehran.

Trump wants to try diplomacy with Iran first, but Tehran recently rejected his offer. Interestingly Israel’s handling of Hamas could affect the Iranian situation:

“If Israel will display determination in Gaza and will obliterate Hamas as a sovereign power, this will have a huge impact on the negotiations and diplomacy towards Iran,” said Michael. “The Iranians will understand that the rules of the game have changed. Any stuttering on Israel’s part will negate the chance of a diplomatic solution with Iran.”

According to this theory, Hamas must be dealt with decisively and quickly or Iran will not take any threats to them seriously. I tend to agree. But at some point actions need to speak louder than words or diplomacy. And the US must support both options:

“Israel cannot act alone without tight coordination with the US,” Ben-Dor said. “As long as there is a diplomatic effort, an imminent Israeli preemptive attack is off the table.”

A decisive elimination of Hamas can clear up both.