The Day After

Phase one of the ceasefire deal has ended and we’re entering a new phase where the proposed second phase has all but fallen apart with both sides digging in their heals as we’re told in a report from The Epoch Times:

Israel has stopped the entry of goods and supplies into the Gaza Strip after the Hamas terrorist group rejected a cease-fire framework proposed by the country.

On Jan. 19, a six-week cease-fire began between Israel and Hamas under which the terror group released 25 hostages and eight bodies. In exchange, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The first phase of the cease-fire ended on Saturday, March 1. On that day, Hamas said it rejected Israel’s proposal for extending the first phase.

Prime Minister Netanyahu basically said that if Hamas won't come to the table to negotiate and doesn’t release hostages they won’t get a free lunch anymore:

“With the conclusion of the 1st stage of the hostages deal and in light of Hamas’s refusal to accept the Witkoff framework for the continuation of the talks, to which Israel agreed, PM Netanyahu decided: as of this morning, entry of all goods & supplies to the Gaza Strip be halted,” the Israeli prime minister’s office wrote in a March 2 post on social media platform X.

The PM then added that further actions will be taken if the terrorists continues to refuse talks:

“Israel will not allow a cease-fire without a release of our hostages. If Hamas persists in its refusal, there will be additional consequences.”

With the second phase officially ended there is no ceasefire to honor so Israel offered another deal which Hamas promptly rejected. There is no reason for the fighting to be halted so Netanyahu basically is saying it will start again unless a new agreement can be reached. One is on the table, though:

Hamas is estimated to hold another 25 hostages and the bodies of 30 individuals.

The “Witkoff framework” referred to a proposal put forward by U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff for a temporary cease-fire during the Ramadan and the Jewish Passover periods. Ramadan is expected to end on March 30, and Passover on April 20.

Under the proposal, Hamas is expected to return half of all living and deceased hostages on the first day of the framework. If a permanent cease-fire agreement is reached, Hamas must release the remaining hostages and bodies.

A New Deal Is Needed

This new deal will maintain the current calm while both cultures celebrate their holy periods. During that time hostages and the remains of those who died in captivity will be exchanged no doubt for yet more dangerous prisoners. Israel is onboard while Hamas is not:

“While Israel has agreed to the Witkoff framework in order to return our hostages, Hamas has, until now, clung to its rejection of this framework. If Hamas changes its position, Israel will immediately enter into negotiations on the overall details of the Witkoff framework,” the prime minister said.

“Steve Witkoff proposed the framework on extending the cease-fire after gaining the impression that, at present, there was no possibility of bridging between the positions of the sides on ending the war, and that additional time was required for talks on a permanent cease-fire.”

Apparently under the recent ceasefire deal there was no agreed transition between the phases which is why such a transition is needed. Israel isn’t going to let Hamas do nothing and still get the benefit of no fighting:

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel is prepared to negotiate over the next phase but more hostages must be freed during the talks. He said Israel had received a side letter from the Biden administration saying there was no automatic transition between the phases of the truce.

“We fulfilled all our commitments [under Phase 1] until the very last day, which was yesterday,” Saar said at a press conference. “Our position is that during negotiations, hostages should be released.”

Of course Hamas is griping about it. The lopsided terms of the deal was great for them. Israel is not willing to be blackmailed any longer and with the US taking the lead in the negotiations now, they don’t have countries like Egypt and Qatar who are far from neutral dictating the terms. The terrorists now have to compromise to get what they want now. Obviously they are upset:

Hamas warned that any attempt to delay or cancel the cease-fire agreement would have “humanitarian consequences” for the hostages and reiterated that the only way to free them was through implementing the existing deal, which did not specify a timeline for freeing the remaining captives.

Hamas has said it is willing to free the hostages all at once in Phase Two, but only in return for the release of more Palestinian prisoners, a permanent cease-fire, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

And as we should expect, Israel now has more leverage with President Trump’s man leading the negotiations so they are hesitant to give up security for peace:

Israel is hesitant to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor, its buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza. The country was supposed to cut down its presence in the corridor during the first phase of the cease-fire and remove itself completely in the second phase.

However, an Israeli official said this week that the country will remain in the area in order to prevent Hamas from smuggling arms into Gaza.

And in Judea and Samaria, the Israel Defense force is tightening the screws on Hamas backed terrorists there:

Meanwhile, the Israeli military continues its operations against Palestinian terror groups. It is expelling inhabitants from refugee camps in Samaria, located in the northern area of the West Bank, as part of the effort.

Earlier, Defense Minister Israel Katz said he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to expand operations in the refugee camps of Nur al-Shams, Jenin, and Tulkarem. On Feb. 23, the IDF sent tanks into the West Bank, the first time this has happened in over two decades.

As I read of the plans to deal with Hamas yesterday and the six month time frame to do it I wondered if Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah would just sit idly by while it happened. In my opinion I don’t see it happening. Iran who is racing to get nuclear weapons and Hezbollah who still has a lot of weapons in its arsenal have already said they will support Hamas to the death and haven’t changed their rhetoric since, will get involved again. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have said that they are going to start lobbing missiles and drones if the ceasefire ends so we could be back to where we were before January very quickly. In short, I still see a big conflict breaking out much like the six day war before it is all said and done. I would prefer diplomacy to work, but Hamas will never surrender its weapons or leave Gaza on their own. With Israel taking a harder stance, push will come to shove sooner than later.