GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 475

The Trump Effect

Ceasefire Extension Requested

In three days the 2 month deadline for Israel to leave southern Lebanon will end and Israel is asking to extend that timeframe as we see in a report from The Jerusalem Post:

The IDF will stay in southern Lebanon after day 60 of the ceasefire but it’s still unclear for how long, according to sources in the defense establishment and ministers, who convened on Thursday night to discuss the situation. Sunday will mark 60 days since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on November 27.

The agreement is based on the Lebanese Army holding the area instead of Hezbollah, but Israel isn’t seeing them do that:

The agreement drafted by US envoy Amos Hochstein dictates that the Lebanese Army will be deployed in southern Lebanon during the first 60 days, dismantling Hezbollah camps and equipment. After day 60, Israeli forces are expected to completely withdraw from Lebanese territory.

Israeli officials, however, have said the Lebanese Army is not doing the job fast enough.

Apparently they need to stay longer because Lebanon isn’t holding up their end of the bargain:

“The deployment is not according to the schedule, and the work they are doing on the ground is minimal”, two Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post.

Israel is debating on how long it will actually take to leave Lebanon and hoping that the Trump administration will agree with that:

The security cabinet met on Thursday to debate how long Israel should stay in southern Lebanon considering the Lebanese side hasn’t fulfilled its part of the agreement.

The hope, or as some officials call it, “the dream,” is that the Trump administration will allow Israel to leave a permanent military outpost in southern Lebanon near the border.

Changes in Lebanon's political landscape

In recent weeks, as reported in the Post, Trump officials told senior Israeli officials: “We don’t want this deal to fall apart.”

Interestingly, a delay in the IDF leaving might actually embolden Hezbollah to push Israel out:

Two Western diplomats told the Post that now that there is an anti-Hezbollah prime minister and president, a permanent Israeli presence will cause Hezbollah to proclaim that only it can make Israel leave, a statement that might increase the terrorist group’s political power in the country after attempts to downgrade its political influence. Israeli officials stressed that whatever the decision is, the government wants Washington to agree to it.

Israel would prefer that the US is still onboard with the agreement, though:

“The last thing we want, is the US pulling out of the mechanism that is supposed to monitor the ceasefire, which will leave the Lebanese Army by itself, in charge of dismantling Hezbollah camps, and we all know how well that can turn out to be,” one Israeli official told the Post.

I see this ceasefire deal falling apart. Hezbollah basically runs Lebanon. Anyone who really thinks this will work is also riding their unicorn to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Houthis Are Terrorists Again

The Trump administration designated the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a terrorist organization again after Joe Biden lifted removed them from the list in 2021 as we’re told in an article from i24news.tv:

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will redesignate the Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization, reversing former president Joe Biden's decision to remove them from the list in 2021.

The Houthis are not a nuisance now, but are more of a danger than once thought:

The Houthis have launched more than a hundred attacks against commercial and military ships in the Red Sea since October 7, 2023. The decree also condemned Iran's support for the Yemeni rebels.

President Trump is calling for those in the area to join them in defeating the rebels:

"it is now the policy of the United States to cooperate with its regional partners to eliminate the Houthis’ capabilities and operations, deprive them of resources, and thereby end their attacks on U.S. personnel and civilians, U.S. partners, and maritime shipping in the Red Sea," Trump said. His new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, now has 30 days to officially request the Houthis' redesignation.

Trump is also looking at cutting off money that is going to the terrorists by way of Yemen:

The State Department, along with USAID, will review nongovernmental organizations operating in Yemen.

After this, Trump "will direct USAID to end its relationship with entities that have made payments to the Houthis, or which have opposed international efforts to counter the Houthis while turning a blind eye towards the Houthis’ terrorism and abuses."

As mentioned earlier the previous administration took the Houthis off the terrorist list:

The Biden administration had removed the Houthis from the list, fearing that this designation would hinder humanitarian aid in Yemen.

The rebels indicated they would stop their attacks while the ceasefire is in place, but we can hardly trust them:

The Houthis recently indicated their intention to stop their attacks as part of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, although they said they would continue attacking Israeli-flagged ships.

While we are seeing signs that Trump’s threats to these terrorists is making a difference, there are also signs that the newly elected President is starting to soften his stance on them when he also mentioned that he would like to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions through negotiations rather than having Israelis strikes do it. My concern is that his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is exerting too much influence and needs to be replaced. Witkoff is thought to have bullied Netanyahu into the ceasefire and, according to some reports, he will be in charge of the war in Gaza as well as Iran issues. We read this in an article from jewishvirtuallibrary.org:

On January 22, 2025, Witkoff clarified on Fox News that the Trump administration had no role in determining the prisoner-to-hostage exchange ratio in the recent Hamas-Israel hostage release and ceasefire agreement. He announced plans to travel to Israel as part of an inspection team to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation in the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, emphasizing that successful execution could lead to additional hostage releases. Witkoff highlighted the ceasefire as a vital step toward Middle East normalization, stating that “everybody,” including Qatar, could be part of future normalization efforts.

On January 23, 2025, it was reported that President Trump plans to appoint Middle Witkoff to lead efforts on Iran. Witkoff will oversee initiatives to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reduce regional conflicts. The strategy reportedly involves a combination of diplomacy with Tehran and a potential restart of the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign.

The caution is then noted:

Witkoff’s business ties with Qatar and the UAE have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest. He participated in the Qatar Economic Forum, and his son has been involved in real estate development ventures in the country. Additionally, Witkoff secured megadeals with sovereign wealth funds from the UAE, including transactions involving his Park Lane Hotel in New York. The Qatar Investment Authority notably acquired the hotel from Witkoff for $623 million, mere months after he participated in the economic forum.

I think Witkoff is not good for the role he’s in now and I pray that other’s in Trump’s circle see it sooner than later. Your mileage may vary, though.