GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 422

Ceasefire On Shaky Ground

IDF Violated Deal?

According to a report from The Jerusalem Post France is accusing Israel of breaking the ceasefire agreement:

France has claimed that Israel has breached the ceasefire with Lebanon, with some 52 violations being counted in the past day alone, according to a Sunday Ynet report.

France has further warned of the collapse of the agreement due to such instances.

France is wanting the IDF to allow the Lebanese army deal with Hezbollah before intervening:

"The Lebanese are fully committed to acting to maintain the ceasefire and prevent Hezbollah from moving south again, but they must be given time to prove themselves," Ynet cited a French source as saying.

They do admit that Hezbollah isn’t complying either:

The French reportedly also acknowledged that attempts were being made by Hezbollah to return weapons to southern Lebanon, the Israeli news outlet added.

Both France and the Lebanese leaders are going to live up to their end of the deal:

Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun and Lebanese interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati, both of whom France have maintained close communication with, reaffirmed their commitment to preventing Hezbollah returning to the south and to preserving the ceasefire agreement, French officials said.

"Every violation will be met with significant enforcement, and that is what is happening on the ground," an Israeli source told Ynet in response.

Israel wants Lebanon to be involved but can’t wait until they’re ready:

Responding to the claims, Israeli officials stated that the enforcement mechanism of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon "will start gaining momentum" on Monday and Tuesday, and until that time, Israel will continue to aggressively enforce violations across the border.

France rather than the US is warning Hezbollah and Israel about breaches:

Also on Sunday, Israeli state broadcaster KAN cited a French source saying that it had warned both parties against actions that could constitute a breach of the ceasefire.

Israel responded by saying they are following the agreement and cited an examples of it:

Last week, the military noted that the ceasefire was largely being adhered to, with the IDF reacting against any violations of it.

The IDF also noted it had targeted a Hezbollah medium-range rocket crew, which seemed to be getting to fire at Israel from southern Lebanon.

The military further stated that an additional breach of the ceasefire had been reported as several suspects had arrived in villages to which entry was prohibited.

Now we see why Israel was hesitant to include France in any part of the deal. It appears they are not wanting Israel to defend itself and recent history of stopping arms shipments to Israel only makes things worse for the French being objective now. This is one example of their motives.

Unstable Syria

In the last few days a major coup is happening in Syria, no doubt in part because Israel has severely weakened Iran. We read an article from WND.com that tells us the current government is on the verge of collapsing:

As the dust began to settle on a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which is still holding … but only just, almost without warning the issue of Syria leaped back into the spotlight.

Intense international attention had been focused on stopping the almost 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It seemed nobody expected fighting, which initially erupted in Syria in March 2011, to pick up again.

As in most coups there are groups trying to put themselves in power:

There are numerous players currently vying for power in Syria, including the country's long-standing President Bashar al-Assad, whom Russia and Iran back. What we do know is that thousands of fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a Sunni Islamist group previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida's former branch in Syria, launched a widespread attack on government forces on November 28 in northwestern Syria. The Islamists quickly overran Syrian army positions, with reports of a large contingent of Russian special forces being killed, captured or fleeing the onslaught.

Russia and Turkey are on the side of President Assad:

On Sunday, Russian warplanes – with support from the Syrian Air Force – bombed mostly civilian targets in Idlib, with early reports claiming dozens of deaths in the attack. Furthermore, it seems Assad can also count on the active support of Turkey – a NATO member – which is thought to have backed jihadists who have taken the opportunity to attack its long-time foe, the Kurds.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell us about the danger to Christians because of the fighting:

For their part, the Kurds in Aleppo, for example, have taken up arms against the Islamists, and are doing what they can to protect Syria's Christian community in their region.

President Assad may gotten out of Dodge and if the rebels get in power, any one not a Muslim will be treated even worse that they are treated under Assad:

There were rumors on Saturday suggesting Assad and his family had been whisked out of the country, possibly to Russia, although these have not been verified. It should be to point out that while Assad is a butcher, and some 600,000 Syrians have been killed during the civil war, along with approximately half of the 20 million population either externally or internally displaced, the so-called rebels are jihadists, who will attempt to deal even more brutally to non-Muslims.

It is a lose/lose situation for Christians:

Indeed, there are already reports of public beheadings, including of Syrian soldiers. Israel's former prime minister Menachem Begin when asked his opinion about the Iran-Iraq war, pithily responded, "We wish great success to both sides." Despite the Assad regime's appalling human rights record, the lightning nature of the rebel attack and the speed with which it has overrun Syrian positions bodes ill for the coming weeks, especially as it has been accompanied by strict enforcement of sharia law.

It's Falling Apart

Like we’ve been told in Gaza, not having a moderate government waiting if the Assad regime falls is not necessarily a good thing:

It appears we are seeing in real time the fraying of the so-called Axis of Resistance's fabric. Hezbollah has had a close working relationship with the Assad regime in Syria, yet Israel dealt it monumental blows over the last three months or so, which culminated in the current uneasy peace, and was preceded by the decapitation of Iran's Lebanese proxy's entire leadership structure.

The collapse of Hezbollah is also giving other Islamists an opening in Syria:

If nature abhors a vacuum, geopolitics is similarly attuned to the rise and fall of different groups' fortunes. The damage Hezbollah has suffered has clearly presented an opportunity to Sunni Islamists.

While not tipping their hand, Prime Minister Netanyahu only wants what will keep Israel safe:

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhau said he and the defense establishment were keeping a watchful eye on the developments in Syria, saying "We are determined to protect the State of Israel's interests, as well as protect all our achievements during the war."

It doesn’t appear anyone knows exactly how this affects Israel:

Even if the forces of Assad, Putin and Khamanei are driven from Syria – or at least put on the backfoot – it is not axiomatically true – at least from an Israeli perspective – what follows it, especially if it is implacably jihadist in nature. The maxim about the enemy of my enemy being my friend, might not fit this situation as some might assume.

Which may also point to why the city of Damascus may need to be destroyed as prophesied in Isaiah 17 because Israel might not want the prevailing party to get their hands on the weapons in that city. Either way, terrorists of any stripe still hate Israel.