GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 409

Take The Deal

Hezbollah Peace Deal

Apparently the outgoing US administration wants to get a peace deal done to end the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict as we read in an article from the Jewish News Syndicate:

Tehran is telling its Lebanese terrorist proxy Hezbollah that it supports ending the war against Israel amid an American push for a ceasefire agreement, The New York Times reported over the weekend.

Ali Larijani, senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, met with senior Lebanese officials in Beirut on Nov. 15 to discuss the matter.

While it sounds like they want peace, the communications are really to survive to fight another day:

Two Iranians affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps told the Times that Larijani conveyed messages to Hezbollah from Khamenei that he supported the end of the war and that the regime would assist with rebuilding the terror group’s forces and recovering from the war.

The details of the acceptance are this:

The sources also said that Khamenei told Hezbollah to accept the terms of a ceasefire deal that would see Hezbollah retreat to north of the Litani River in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War but which was never enforced.

The fighting has been extensive for both sides:

Hezbollah has launched some 16,000 rockets, missiles and drones from Lebanon at Israel since joining the war in support of Hamas on Oct. 8, 2023, a day after the Gaza-based terrorist group’s massacre in southern Israel. Over 60,000 residents of northern Israel remain internally displaced due to the ongoing rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon, which have caused widespread material damage and multiple deaths and injuries.

Israel has been just hammering Hezbollah especially its leadership and their weapons:

However, Hezbollah’s leadership has been left in tatters following a series of assassinations by Israel, including of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Sept. 27. This was preceded by Israeli sabotage of Hezbollah communication devices that killed 39 people and wounded more than 3,400 members of the terror group. Israel has been waging a devastating aerial campaign against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, including its stronghold of Dahieh south of Beirut. According to Israeli estimates, the terror group has lost most of its arsenal to the ongoing strikes.

Then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said in late October that Hezbollah is estimated to have lost over 80% of its long-range rockets since the start of the war.

Iran’s Support of US Deal

The article went on to tell us that Iran wants a solution for Hezbollah:

Larijani reportedly said in Beirut on Nov. 15 that Tehran would support a decision by the Lebanese government and the country’s “resistance” to halt the war.

“We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems,” Larijani said after meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.

Hezbollah signals it likes the deal put forth by the US:

The Times report followed a report by Lebanon’s LBCI channel that Hezbollah’s response to the U.S. proposal had been positive.

A source close to the Iranian terrorist proxy told The Washington Post on Nov. 13 that Hezbollah would be willing to withdraw its forces north of the Litani as part of a temporary ceasefire.

Temporary? That doesn’t sound reasonable, at least for the displaced Israelis to go back to their homes and businesses. Nevertheless, there will be talks:

A meeting was scheduled for Monday between Berri, from the Hezbollah-aligned Amal movement, and Mikati to finalize Lebanon’s response to the U.S. proposal, and President Joe Biden’s envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, was scheduled to travel to the Lebanese capital on Tuesday for talks.

The US presented the deal to Lebanon a few days ago:

A senior Lebanese government official confirmed to AFP on Nov. 15 that U.S. Ambassador Lisa Johnson had presented a 13-point proposal to Lebanese officials the previous day.

The proposal includes a 60-day truce, during which Lebanon would redeploy its troops along the border.

We find out what is in the deal from a Telegram post from the Israel Realtime. It includes the following:

A ceasefire, Implementation of Resolution 170, Hezbollah's retreat beyond the Litani River, withdrawal of Israeli forces from the villages they occupied, the return of the displaced Lebanese, the return of the Israelis to the north.

It also adds this:

The draft includes the strengthening of the Lebanese military forces and UNIFIL and the establishment of an American-French-British international committee with an Arab country (it is not clear at the moment which country this is) whose role it is to directly monitor the implementation of Resolution 1701 by both sides.

This includes granting the right to self-defense to both sides, while granting Israel extensive freedom in the interpretation of "right" to the point of military intervention to deal with any violation of the resolution by Hezbollah south of Litani that may also extend to Lebanese territory, in addition to the activation of UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese army to prevent Hezbollah from re-arming .

The Devil Is In The Details

It is how Israel can respond that is more than troubling:

2 generals are supposed to monitor the implementation. The expansion of the clause that allows Israel to "attack in Lebanon" if it detects an incident related to the Hezbollah organization that requires a response IS that this will not happen immediately.

That is, Israel will not be able to attack immediately however it discovers a violation of the agreement, but Israel will have to transfer to those generals that there is a violation of the agreement and they will have to examine it, each violation individually, only after they declare it a violation will Israel have the right to respond.

Already those who’ve looked at the offer doubt Israel will accept it for these reasons:

A lot of capability remains in the hands of Hezbollah. With these terms it will be impossible to stop Hezbollah from re-arming. As soon as the agreement is signed, Hezbollah forces will return right up to the border. The Israeli residents of the north are not clear if they will return as we return to pretend peace in preparation for the next round. While the IDF has demolished much of the Shiite villages near or overlooking the border that were being used as attack or launch platforms, Iran has already offered to fund their rebuilding - returning to the current situation.

As we can see Hezbollah would love this deal:

The Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper (affiliated with Hezbollah) reports that Hezbollah has decided to follow the strategy of "positive ambiguity" in everything related to the agreement.

That is, positive to move towards an agreement and in the next step details - opposition to Israeli freedom of action, determining the mandate of the supervisory committee, opposition to the role of Britain and Germany, in addition not only to opposition to Israeli freedom of action but also to active action of international bodies (aka UNIFIL or others).

Basically Israel stops demolishing Hezbollah and if the terrorists attack Israel can’t respond until the attack is investigated. And Hezbollah gets the chance to rebuild and rearm. Israel knows that once Donald Trump officially becomes president again they need his support so they ‘ve been meeting with him as we see going back to the JNS.org report:

Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer discussed the proposal with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during a visit to his Florida estate on Nov. 10, according to the Post report.

The discussions at Mar-a-Lago centered on a ceasefire that would involve Western and Russian cooperation, according to the Post. The proposal calls for Moscow to prevent Hezbollah from resupplying via Syrian land routes.

And then they are still meeting with current administration:

Following his meeting in Florida with Trump, Dermer headed to Washington to meet on Nov. 11 and 12 with Biden administration officials, including Hochstein.

No Chance

The deal has no possibility of happening since both sides have dealbreakers:

A senior Israeli diplomatic official told Israel Hayom on Saturday that the IDF will retain operational freedom to respond to any security threats from across the northern border, regardless of any diplomatic arrangements.

However, a source close to Hezbollah told the Post that the group’s “condition for progress remains clear: Israel must be prohibited from conducting operations within Lebanese territory.”

Israel wants to maintain a presence in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah doesn’t want that. And the terrorists don’t want the IDF to continue to attack them:

Berri emphasized at the time that any ceasefire agreement must not include the ability for Israel to attack by land, sea or air, Channel 12 reported. “Otherwise, what’s the purpose of an agreement?” he remarked.

As for who will enforce the deal, they don’t want any Western countries involved:

Another potential sticking point is Lebanon’s objections to the United Kingdom and Germany monitoring the implementation of U.N. Resolution 1701. They reportedly favor the United States and France.

So how will this all go down? No deal will be reached and Israel will increase their offensive:

If the ceasefire efforts fail, an Israeli military official told the Post that there are plans in the works to expand ground operations in Lebanon.