GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 394

Let’s Make A Deal

Iran Playing Games

As if their proposal is valid, Iran is teasing Israel as we are told in a report from The Times Of Israel:

Iran’s president said Sunday that a potential ceasefire between its allies and Israel “could affect the intensity” of Tehran’s threatened response to recent strikes on Iranian military sites.

Iranian leaders have warned they will mete out a “punishing” reprisal attack against Israel for a series of retaliatory sorties on October 26 that Jerusalem says knocked out the Islamic Republic’s air defenses and missile production capabilities. Reports have indicated the response could come as soon as this week.

So they still want to attack, but they will hold back some if Israel stops fighting its proxies. Sure, I believe them. Here is what they stated:

“If [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a ceasefire and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response,” Masoud Pezeshkian said, according to state news agency IRNA.

He added that Iran “will not leave unanswered any aggression against its sovereignty and security,” according to the news agency.

The US still tried to calm everyone down:

On Thursday, senior White House aides Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein were in Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials about conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both backed by Iran.

They want a two month ceasefire in Lebanon as well working on a hostage deal:

The meetings focused on efforts to secure a 60-day ceasefire deal in Lebanon and to assess new proposals floated by mediators to free Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, according to a US official familiar with planning for the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

The trip is all show, though:

With the US election on Tuesday and deep differences remaining between the sides, hopes for immediate progress appeared remote.

An anonymous Israelis source thinks a deal if the offing:

Nonetheless, Israel’s Channel 12 news quoted an unnamed official Sunday saying that a deal to end the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon could be inked within two weeks.

Israel simply wants Hezbollah to comply with an agreement they already signed:

The Kan public broadcaster on Wednesday published the details of what it said was a draft agreement drawn up by the US for a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel is seeking a deal that implements UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids Hezbollah from maintaining a presence south of the Litani River. However, Jerusalem reportedly also wants to be able to re-engage the terror group in southern Lebanon if it feels threatened.

Wanting to be able to still respond to any future attacks is going to be a serious roadblock.

No One Knows

We read in an article from The Jerusalem Post that the remaining hostages couldn’t be released if the negotiators for Hamas wanted to:

Micha Kobi, a former senior member of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), emphasized the enormous challenges Israel faces in dealing with Hamas and the return of the hostages in an interview on Sunday with Maariv.

Micha Kobi is a former senior member of the Shin Bet and Yahya Sinwar's interrogator from his time in Israeli prison.

According to Kobi there is no one person who knows where every one of the hostages are:

"The main headquarters of Hamas is no longer operational, but nevertheless - there are other guerilla fighters who are fighting throughout the region on behalf of the organization, within the framework of local and even neighborhood headquarters of Hamas. Today, no one in all of Hamas knows exactly where all the hostages are being held."

Kobi continued, adding: "Someone may be aware of the location of one or two, but I don't think there is anyone who is aware of the location of all of them."

He went on to state the negotiators for Hamas have less than noble intentions:

According to him, Hamas is not interested in releasing the hostages, and there is no one to communicate with: "There is no such thing as a deal - this is blackmail. They are mercilessly blackmailing the state."

He did offer a simple way to get the hostages home - use money:

Kobi offered a creative solution for finding information about the hostages: "We need to pay money to those who return the hostages. After Sinwar was eliminated, they talked about this idea - but it was not carried out. We need to go in the direction of intelligence operations and turn to families who know something so that they bring information about the hostages in exchange for money."

Kobi stated that Hamas also won’t relent to a deal that takes them out of power:

He highlighted that Hamas operates from a ruthless position of power and is not willing to cooperate or reveal details about the condition of the hostages.

US Is Pressuring The Wrong People

We learn from the same Post report that Hamas is the problem with humanitarian aid:

According to Kobi, Hamas absolutely controls the humanitarian aid that is transferred to the Gaza Strip, which makes the residents dependent on the organization.

"As soon as a humanitarian truck with food enters, Hamas takes control of it, takes all the equipment, and sells it to the residents of Gaza for black money. It reaches a situation where a single cigarette costs NIS 200."

Taking Hamas out the supply chain is the only way to see the aid actually help the people:

Kobi believes humanitarian aid should be taken over and distributed directly to the residents: "Once we do this, the residents will be less dependent on Hamas."

The terrorists simply steal the aid after Israel delivers it:

Kobi explains that the mechanisms of the Interior and Health Ministry in Gaza are still part of the Hamas organization, and the population depends on them.

"During the distribution of food, Hamas members even beat and kill residents who try to take food," he describes. "This situation makes it difficult for the residents to find alternatives to live free and independent from the organization."

As in the hostage situation, Kobi has thoughts on how to fix the humanitarian aid problem:

One of Kobi's proposals is to establish a military government in Gaza to eradicate terrorism: "We need to establish units on behalf of the IDF and Shin Bet, which will take care of the local administration, and appoint Gazan education and health personnel - who are not affiliated with Hamas. We killed 90 percent of Hamas members, but we must make sure that nothing remains, except for their idea as a political party, without the ability to implement it."

He also states that the southern part of Gaza must be controlled by Israel if they truly want to eliminate Hamas:

The importance of the Philadelphia corridor comes up repeatedly in Kobe's analysis. According to him, Hamas continues to use this corridor to smuggle money and weapons that strengthen its fighting capacity. "They will do everything to continue smuggling, so we must continue to control the corridor and monitor their movement. Otherwise, they will once again gather a lot of power and weapons against us," he says.

He was optimistic that Hamas can be destroyed if the Gazans don’t need them to survive:

Kobi concluded his situation assessment: "If we work properly, within a year or two, we can eliminate all of Hamas."

According to him, the war does not prevent Gazans from supporting Hamas, mainly due to economic hardships and lack of sources of livelihood.

"Hamas controls the humanitarian equipment, and this strengthens the residents' dependence on them," he adds, explaining that the way to win the fight is to cut off the economic and humanitarian power of Hamas - and return direct control to the local population.