GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 389

Israel Is Ready

“We Will Hit Places We Spared”

We learn in a report from The Times Of Israel that if Iran strikes Israel again, they won’t hold back in their response:

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi warns that if Iran again launches ballistic missiles at Israel, then the military will respond using “abilities we didn’t use” in the strikes last week.

Halevi has the recent strikes on Iran last weekend to back up his claims:

“If Iran makes the mistake and launches another barrage of missiles at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran, reach even with capabilities that we did not use this time, and hit very, very hard both the capabilities and places that we spared this time,” he says to aircrews at the Ramon Air Base in southern Israel.

He then told the troops that Israel stopped short this time and why:

“We did this for a very simple reason — because we may be required to do it again. We didn’t finish this event, we are right in the middle of it,” Halevi adds.

The Israel Minister of Defense addressed the state of things in Hezbollah as we read in an article from The Jerusalem Post:

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told officers of the IDF Northern Command on Tuesday that Israel’s war against Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal has reduced it to 20% of its pre-war numbers.

That’s a big change, if true. Gallant added this:

He said, "The achievements of the IDF in Lebanon are extremely impressive. We have eliminated the chain of command and control of Hezbollah, and I estimate the missile and rocket capability they have left is at 20%."

Defense sources told The Jerusalem Post that the 20% comment related to the around 50,000 supply of rockets held by Hezbollah prior to October 23, 2023, meaning that this number is now down to around 10,000.

All of this is within the context of Hezbollah having had an estimated pre-war combined rocket and mortar (much shorter range than rockets) arsenal of 150,000.

Hezbollah is far from being toothless, though:

Regarding the other weapons, such as mortars, sources told the Post that the IDF’s intelligence may not be as exact, and it is possible that there are still more of them, though also they are likely down to far under 50%.

Add to this that the terrorists from the north can’t use those mortars now to stop the IDF:

In addition, because mortars are even shorter-range weapons, they will not be as usable against the IDF Home Front while Israel’s up to five divisions remain in southern Lebanon.

How Long Will It Last?

I’m talking about the military operation against Hezbollah we are told this from us this from the same Post article:

Also on Tuesday, Gallant emphasized the progress of the ground operations in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure and the goal of returning residents of northern Israel to their homes.

Not everyone agrees on when it will end:

There are disagreements within the defense and political establishments about how much longer to continue the ground invasion which started on September 30.

IDF Maj. Gen. Uri Gordon initially wanted to finish it by mid-late October, based on the idea that little more could be accomplished strategically, given that the government had limited the invasion to southern Lebanon anyway.

Others want it to continue:

However, the government, many northern residents’ mayors, and some other defense officials have wanted to continue.

The PM isn’t feeling rushed, either:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not shown any desire to finish the invasion before the US presidential election on November 5.

Going back to Gallant, he seems to want to split the proverbial baby on this:

Gallant himself has not taken a public position on the timing and the Post has learned that he seems to be trying to navigate both between the opposing camps as well as maximizing the utility of the pressure the IDF has on Hezbollah for achieving a better diplomatic resolution of the northern border conflict.

Overall, I think that if you promise the residents of northern Israel that they can return once there no longer is a threat from Hezbollah or really any terrorist attacks then defeating Hezbollah is the only thing that can be done there. Diplomacy with terrorist has never worked. They only respond to one thing and that is strength. This is true about Hamas and terrorists groups within Israel and it is true with Iran as well. As much as people don’t like it, this war will not end until all terrorist threats are neutralized. And that will mean demilitarizing all these areas from top to bottom. They have had an awful lot of time to build tunnels and hiding places for weapons and soldiers. Expect one last all out offensive from all Iranian proxies and even Iran themselves. And expect Israel to get hit hard, too. But also expect the God of Israel to intervene and help them hit back and give Israel the victory where they can tear down the walls around them and live in peace and safety for the first time as seen in Bible prophecy (see Ezekiel 38).