GNITN - Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 319

Between A Rock And A Hard Space

Not Good News

We learned in a report from i24news.tv that the bodies of 6 hostages were found:

The bodies of six Israeli hostages abducted by terrorists on October 7, including one hitherto presumed alive, were recovered in an overnight operation in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, the military announced Tuesday morning.

The deceased hostages brought back were Alex Dancyg, 75, Yagev Buchshtav, 35, Chaim Peri, 79, Yoram Metzger, 80, Nadav Popplewell, 51, and Avraham Munder, 78.

All six are known to have been taken to Gaza alive during the Hamas-led invasion and slaughter in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and were killed over the course of the 10-month-long war.

We knew that 5 of the 6 were dead, but Munder is now known to have died in captivity:

Dancyg and Buchshtav had been confirmed dead by the IDF in late July, while Peri, Metzger, and Popplewell were declared dead by the army in early June. The five were believed to have been killed in Khan Younis in early 2024, although the causes of death are not known.

Munder had not been previously declared dead by the IDF, although the army had some information that had raised concern for his wellbeing. As such, until Tuesday morning he had been listed among the hostages presumed alive.

In Jewish culture, having the bodies provides closure for the families. The PM and others spoke:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent his condolences to the families of the six and thanked soldiers and commanders from the military and the Shin Bet for the “determined” operation that led to the recovery.

“The State of Israel will continue to make every effort to return all our hostages — both the living and the fallen,” Netanyahu said, amid relentless accusations that he was not doing enough to secure a hostage deal.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hailed the “daring and dangerous” operation and said he too shares the families’ grief. He said the action was a testament to the “freedom of operation” Israel has achieved in the Strip and vowed to continue until Hamas is toppled and all hostages are returned.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also sent his condolences and thanked the IDF troops for the “courageous” operation. He added that the remaining hostages “must only be returned via intense military pressure, halting the entry of fuel and humanitarian [aid] to terrorism and its supporters, and not via irresponsible deals that will bring upon us, God forbid, more hostages and fatalities in the future.”

Investigations into how they died will now commence:

With the bodies recovered, the IDF said it would continue to investigate the causes of the men’s deaths, including the possibility that some or all of the six were killed by Israeli fire amid military operations in Khan Younis.

Some are speculating that more of the hostages still believed to be alive have died and is the reason Hamas refuses to release more than 18 now in the first phase of the current talks.

Iran Can’t Fight Long

According to an article from The Jerusalem Post Iran asked the US to help them in a long-term retaliation with Israel:

Iran is in no position to fight a long-term war with Israel and even asked the US to intervene to prevent a possible large-scale Israeli retaliation to any Iranian attack, according to Mohsen Sazegara, founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post.

The article tells us a little about the IRGC and Sazegara’s part in it:

The IRGC was founded shortly after the 1979 revolution in Iran to protect the Islamic Republic’s religious control over the country, and to act as a counterbalance to the regular Iranian Army, many of whose officers were still loyal to the Shah of Iran, and therefore could not be trusted by the revolutionary regime.

Since 1979, its authority and influence has spread throughout the world and it is considered one of the leading sponsors of Islamic terror globally. The group is now designated a terrorist organization by the United States. Speaking from the US, where he is now based after leaving Iran more than 20 years ago, Sazegara also touched upon internal conflicts within the Islamic Republic and the problems facing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He then pivoted to telling the Post what the assassination of Hama’s Ismail Haniyeh did to Iran:

“What Israel did, I mean the alleged assassination of [Hamas Chief] Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places, was a humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran,” Sazegara stated. “This has created a problem for Khamenei among his main powerbase – the intelligence services.”

Sazegara then said why Iran can’t continue to fight for days against Israel after their first strike:

“[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is not in a position to fight Israel. They don’t have any strategic balance. They can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach Israel in six to eight minutes.‘ But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t defend the country, especially air defense,’ Khamenei’s commanders told him.

He then added this surprising comment:

They told him that “Iran is not in a position to fight Israel,” Sazegara added. “They emphasized that ‘even if we launch an attack, we should immediately consider a ceasefire with international mediators.’”

He Knows A Lot

If anyone doubts that we should discount Sazegara and his assessments, the article us lets know just how connected he was:

In a wide-ranging interview with the Post, the former revolutionary-turned-politician discussed his role in the revolution, his relationship with its leader Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding of the IRGC, and how his political views evolved against the State-Religion axis that rules in the Islamic Republic, which led to being barred from the 2001 Iranian presidential elections.

Sazegara was managing director of the National Radio of Iran between 1979–1981, before serving in a multitude of political roles in the 80s. He served as political deputy in the prime minister’s office, deputy minister of heavy industries, chairman of the Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran, and vice minister of planning and budget.

He added that Iran actually asked for the US to help them to avoid a prolonged conflict with Israel:

Speaking about the US role in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran, Sazegara stated that, “As far as I know, Iran, behind the scenes, negotiated with the US and the Biden administration and asked them to talk to Israel, stating that Iran would attack somewhere in Israel, and promise nobody will be killed, but Israel should not retaliate.

“Iran asked the US to put pressure on Israel not to retaliate enough to escalate. But this time, the US did not agree and told them that we can’t prevent Israel.”

Getting back to Khamenei, as we mentioned a few days ago, he’s in a tough position:

What challenges does Khamenei face in attacking Israel?

For Sazegara, Khamenei faces multiple challenges in considering any military action against Israel. First, a limited attack risks provoking a significant Israeli retaliation, which could lead to the defeat of Iran’s armed forces. Such a defeat could threaten Khamenei’s power, as historically, humiliated armed forces can often bite the hand that feeds them.

Avoiding a military coup is one thing. Keeping Iran strong is another one:

Secondly, Iran’s economy is fragile, struggling with issues like energy production, inflation, unemployment, and daily strikes. This economic instability further complicates the prospect of engaging in war.

Khamenei also lacks the support of his citizens:

Lastly, Khamenei lacks the support of the Iranian people for a war with Israel. Intelligence gathered indicates that the majority of Iranians oppose any conflict with Israel, leaving Khamenei potentially isolated if he chooses to pursue military action, although knowing the forcefulness with which the regime cracks down on dissent, that thought may be far from the ayatollah’s mind.

Which brings us to why Iran suddenly is getting directly involved with the hostage talks:

Three senior Iranian officials told Reuters last week that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza could prevent Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for Haniyeh’s assassination. Diplomatic envoys have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to de-escalate the situation. This is a face-saving measure to allow the regime to fall back and present the people with some form of a pyrrhic victory, according to Sazegara.

Parlaying defeat into a victory is a risky gambit as Sazegara tells us:

“I’m sure that in Iran, the propaganda will say that ‘Israel was actually afraid of us and accepted the ceasefire,’” should a deal be agreed, he told the Post. “They have to do something to say to their followers that this was a show of power, that [Israel] accepted a ceasefire.

Eventually Iran may have to let it’s proxies fight, something I’ve been predicting for months:

“And if these [Israel-Hamas] negotiations go nowhere and there is no ceasefire, I don’t know what Khamenei will do, but I guess that he would consider using Iran’s proxy groups to retaliate against Israel.”

In some way, if Iran is weakened after they attack Israel it would explain why they have to get Russia to help them take on Israel in the war of Gog and Magog as we read in Ezekiel 38. Almost like God knew ahead of time.