GNITN – Special Edition

Israel At War – Day 24
A Doomsday Scenario

Netanyahu Will Not Resign

In a press conference with foreign press, Prime Minister Netanyahu will not resign now in light of failings by his government to avoid the October 7th terrorist attacks. We read this from am i24news.tv report (see https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1698693909-not-a-single-civilian-needs-to-die-pm-netanyahu-addresses-foreign-press) :

Responding to questions about his potential resignation, Netanyahu dismissed such notions and emphasized that his sole responsibility is to bring down Hamas, saying "the only pne who will resign, is Hamas." He declared unwavering support for the Israeli soldiers engaged in the conflict, affirming, "we stand with our soldiers."

Also in the article he didn’t equivocate on a ceasefire with Hamas:

Netanyahu did not mince words when addressing the terrorists of Hamas. He branded them as "monsters" and delivered a stern warning, saying, "We will continue to pursue you, we will continue to hunt you down. We will cripple you until you fall from our feet."

The Prime Minister made it abundantly clear that Israel would not entertain the idea of a ceasefire, as it would equate to surrender. He stressed that this is a time for war, highlighting his determination to ensure the safety and security of the nation.

More Bombing In Gaza

The IDF is almost in Gaza City as this excerpt from another i24news.tv article tell us (see https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1698658100-idf-tanks-reach-main-road-in-gaza-city) :

Tanks were spotted on the Salah al Din thoroughfare which connects Gaza City in the north to Khan Younes in the south of the Strip

Gaza channels reported spotting IDF tanks at the Netzer intersection in Gaza City, a strategic point deep inside the enclave.

The IDF has been gradually expanding its ground operation in Gaza. On Monday morning, local reports showed tanks on Salah Al Din road, a main thoroughfare that runs from Gaza City in the north of the strip to Khan Younes in the south.

This is the furthest inside the Strip that Israeli forces have reportedly been seen. The intersection is a strategic point that dominates the thoroughfare.

Are We Missing Something?

We are facing an impending point of no return with Hezbollah in the north of Israel. According to some, every day that the northern front is manageable is a day more away from terrorists in Syria and Lebanon actually making a full assault force into Israel. It is also one more day away from Hezbollah unleashing it’s massive rocket arsenal on Israeli cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv which would likely be the main targets. At least that’s the view of an editorial in the Jerusalem Post (see https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-770854) :

Now that the ground invasion into the Gaza Strip is in its fourth day, we can carefully begin to assert that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has decided to stay out, not start a war.

Israeli fears of Hezbollah joining the war were so strong since the Hamas massacre on October 7, that large numbers of the 360,000 reservists were not sent just to the South and the West Bank, but also up to the North. Not a single Hezbollah attempted penetration has succeeded, even though Hezbollah has succeeded in disabling many of the censors on the border fence.

One of the reasons for the delay of the ground invasion was to allow time to further reinforce the North to disable Hezbollah from carrying out a significant attack…Could Hezbollah decide that whenever the turning point is reached that signals the sure fall of Hamas, it now must intervene in a more dangerous, more effective way?

Let’s assume yes, but its current inaction has its own price – Israel will not have to fight on two fronts, and that could make all the difference.

Are they misreading this? Israel would be better off if they are, however, let’s go with their attacking with just rockets to weaken up the Israel Defense Force (IDF). If so, what kind of damage could they do?

A Lot Of Damage

Going back to the Jerusalem Post editorial we read this:

But, one could argue: Hezbollah has a full rocket arsenal that it can release toward Israel at any time – why has it not done so? It could be firing not dozens of rockets at a time, but 6,000 to 8,000 a day, dwarfing Hamas’s record of around 2,000 on the first day of the war, and it’s closer to 50-200 rockets on many days since then.

It could be using its precision rockets – which Hamas does not have – to target IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv or Ben-Gurion Airport.

The IDF has a four-tiered missile defense, which goes beyond Iron Dome, to shoot down some of these more advanced rockets, but predictions over the years estimated that it would not be able to shoot down all of them.

Even with a 90% success rate, 10% of 150,000 rockets getting through would have devastated Israel.

While we can hope that no attack of any kind happens, Hezbollah has already stated they will help Hamas, but most believe they prefer to stay out. That could change if Iran pressures them to do more.

Iran Is The Key Here

Not that we thought any differently as Iran is the one who built up Hamas in the first place. In another editorial from the Jerusalem Post (see https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-770554) we read this:

"Iran didn't build up Hamas over the years, only to leave it alone to deal with Israel's devastating counter-offensive."

As a result, if Hezbollah were to attack they believe it is most likely to occur during an Israeli assault on Gaza and will happen at a time most convenient to Hezbollah rather than Hamas, citing the 2006 war as evidence of previous success of this strategy.

Why has Hezbollah not gotten involved?..."If Hezbollah and Iran have such an advantage, then why haven't they already unleashed hell?"

Hezbollah is also a political party within Lebanon and has been legally part of the Lebanese government since 2005. Currently, Lebanon is experiencing an extreme economic crisis and a war with Israel would only deepen this crisis.

This leads them to conclude that Hezbollah would prefer to remain politically strong and well-liked by the Lebanese public, rather than induce increased internal tensions inside Lebanon.

The next factor is their place within Iranian strategy. Hezbollah acts as an important linchpin for Iranian strategy in the Middle East with their vast arsenal of weapons being a huge threat to Israel… Employing that firepower in the current Gaza conflict would mean depleting it as a means of deterrence, thereby neutralizing its role as a deterrent. This shows Hezbollah as a single-use deterrence, one which can cause extreme damage to Israel and the United States, but one which can only be used once before needing significant time to recover its power. Using this deterrent over the conflict in Gaza would then leave Iran open to reprisals from the United States, negating the exact reason for maintaining Hezbollah in the first place.

(They would be) Leaving the ongoing skirmishes as little more than attempts to keep the specter of Iranian involvement alive and keep Israel distracted in its war in Gaza.

All of this makes sense, but not if Israel destroys Damascus to stop Hezbollah from “distracting” them.

I Defer To The Bible

I may be repeating myself too much, but all of these pundits who talk of ceasefires and Iran and Hezbollah staying away from the Israeli war are not really paying attention to what these countries are saying and what they are willing to do. Don’t get me wrong, I want a ceasing to the fighting, but not is it means more terrorist attacks down the road. We may talk about good things like no more casualties and making things work if Hamas and others lay down their weapons and live peacefully together. Nothing up until now gives me any indication that will happen. As hard as it may be, we need Israel to rid itself of these constant terrorist strikes and living in fear of the next one, and then the next one. The Bible says that just before the war of Gog and Magog that Israel will be living in peace and safety and will not have any walls or barriers up. We can clearly see the examples of the walls that exist now and these will have to become a thing of the past for Ezekiel 38 to happen. Why would Israel even think about taking them down now? In short, I will trust the Bible on this and let the details play out regardless of what anyone else says.