Talks Fall Apart

I told you so. Over and over again. As we see from an article from Irael Hayom the talks for a deal with Iran’s regime ended without a deal with no real hope for a future one:

Immediately after the breakdown of the Iran-US talks in Pakistan, the Pakistanis began trying to arrange another meeting in Islamabad. While those efforts by the Pakistani mediators were being reported, information obtained by Israel Hayom shows that at this stage the Americans are not prepared to set another date for talks.

The US is closing the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the Ayatollahs:

The US intends to fully leverage the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington's precondition was the full reopening of the strait, as had previously been agreed, a condition the Iranians did not meet.

Trump wants to continue talking, but not in Pakistan, obviously a dig at the Pakistani negotiators:

According to CNN, senior officials in President Donald Trump's administration are discussing a possible additional meeting with the Iranians, in Geneva or in Islamabad.

According to many, Iran is running on fumes which is why blocking the Strait of Hormuz is key:

Iran's regime, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has almost no reserves left to continue the fighting, according to assessments by diplomatic and security officials in the US and the Middle East. Those officials say the situation is expected to worsen further if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and that Iran's political leadership is therefore likely to press the Guard's leadership to renew contacts with the US in order to secure relief.

Internal differences are also a source of concern:

Differences between senior Guard commanders Ahmad Vahidi and Ali Abdollahi and the civilian political leadership are deep, and growing. Their refusal to allow Foreign Minister Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to discuss the nuclear issue without an immediate return in the form of sanctions relief was what led to the collapse of the talks in Pakistan.

Simple economics point to a total collapse as well:

Intelligence reaching the US, Israel and Gulf states involved in the issue shows that Iran's foreign currency reserves have been almost entirely depleted. The formal economy run by Pezeshkian's government is showing exceptionally high unemployment, triple-digit inflation, a currency that continues to slide and the near-total blockage of almost every source of income.

Reports indicate that Iran's Finance Ministry and central bank are sending Pezeshkian daily warnings about the state of the economy and that Iran will struggle to recover even if the war ends now, unless sweeping reforms are introduced and resources are redirected toward the economy.

It is as bad as reported and getting worse:

According to a report by opposition-linked Iran International, officials at the central bank of the Islamic Republic warned the government that if the current situation continues, inflation will reach 180% and another 2 million people will join the ranks of the unemployed. The report said central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati stressed to Pezeshkian that Iran must reach an agreement with the US and lift internet restrictions in order to improve the economic situation.

Unreasonable Demands

The Iranian leadership wants financial relief but isn’t willing to give up their nuclear ambitions and control of the shipping lanes:

Hemmati took part in the talks in Islamabad and presented Iran's demand for sanctions to be lifted and frozen assets to be released. He made clear that without immediate income, large parts of Iran's population would face the danger of hunger. The Americans made clear that they would be prepared to release the frozen funds, provided the money was directed to civilian needs. The economic discussion made no progress because of disagreements over the nuclear issue and over Iran's refusal to reopen Hormuz, as it had undertaken to do as a condition for a ceasefire.

And their military support is also suffering financially:

The intelligence also points to the collapse of Iran's second economy, the one run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Guards control numerous companies that dominate Iran's energy sector, including oil exports, as well as mining, aviation, pharmaceuticals, heavy industry and more. Almost all of those sectors, except oil, have nearly ceased operating. The meaning is a reduction in the regime's offensive capabilities. Another aspect, no less important, is the freezing of bank accounts and financial assets belonging to companies tied to the Guards and to their senior figures, meaning a direct blow to the personal wealth of the Guard's top brass.

That’s very important because without the IRGC, the current regime can’t enforce their control over the people. In short, the regime is reeling and is about to fall. Of course I have some of my own opinions.

I Saw This Coming

You won’t read this commentary anywhere else or very few places, but I knew the Iran talks would end with no deal. After I read the Iranian’s list of demands I knew there was no way a deal was even close regardless of all the glowing talks from even US President Donald Trump that it would happen. And lo and behold the sticking point was that Iran isn’t willing to give up their nuclear ambitions. You want to know something? This will never change. I was talking with a relative today wanting to know what’s going on and I told him that no matter how long this drags out the end will be the same if Trump is still in office. Iran is stalling until 2028. Any deal will have nothing happening to the current regime until after the 2028 elections are over and Trump is a lame duck. This is how they negotiate. And history backs me up on this. Hamas is doing it. Hezbollah is doing it. And Iran taught them how to do it. My advice for Trump is to give the Iranian regime what they want and that is to die martyrs. Save money on military actions and bomb away. Send in troops to take over Karg Island and control their energy. Completely control the Strait of Hormuz so nothing gets in or out into Iran and annihilate anyone that attacks them there. The Iranian people have suffered enough and have stated that they are willing to go through more hardship recovering from an all out attack on the regime as long as it is gone. You have your blank check Trump and Netanyahu. Cash it now.