Trump Took Charge

If there was need for more evidence of who is running the war in Israel we see it in both US President Trump and Vice President Vance in response to the Israeli cabinet’s vote to annex Judea and Samaria as we read in an article from Israel Hayom:

Donald Trump warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel would lose all American support if the prime minister allows right-wing ministers to annex the West Bank, establishing the clearest US red line on Israeli territorial expansion despite Trump's extensive pro-Israel record, according to TIME.

The article referred to a phone call between Netanyahu and Trump in early October:

Trump, who spoke with the magazine in mid-October, delivered an ultimatum to Netanyahu during a Saturday evening phone call on Oct. 4 that would terminate the Gaza conflict whether Israel's premier agreed or not, TIME reported. Through mediators from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, Trump's envoys had crafted an agreement ending 24 months of bombardment and bloodshed, with the president informing Netanyahu of Monday's planned announcement, according to TIME. "Bibi, you can't fight the world," Trump recounted telling him to TIME. "You can fight individual battles, but the world's against you." When Netanyahu resisted, Trump unleashed an expletive-filled recitation of his pro-Israel record including the Jerusalem embassy relocation, Golan Heights sovereignty recognition, Abraham Accords facilitation, and participation in June's Iran strikes, according to TIME. "It was a very blunt and straightforward statement to Bibi," Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff told TIME, "that he had no tolerance for anything other than this." By call's end, Netanyahu accepted a two-stage pact establishing ceasefire terms, hostage-prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid access, partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and negotiations for permanent settlement, TIME reported.

The Time article then detailed all that Trump did to get to this point:

This agreement marks a pivotal moment in Trump's ongoing Middle East restructuring, TIME reported. Over nine months, the president attacked Iran's nuclear capabilities, degraded Tehran's regional standing, accelerated Assad's fall in Syria, prompted new Damascus and Beirut governments to seek Washington ties, bombed Houthi positions in Yemen to secure Red Sea shipping protections, and now deployed real estate dealmaker instincts to impose peace on Hamas and Netanyahu despite their seeming intractability, according to TIME. "Trump is coming back and saying: We're going to re-establish America's hegemony here. And he's done it – so far," historian and former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren told TIME. Trump credits his willingness to employ American military force for these achievements, pointing to assassinating Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in his first term and striking three Iranian nuclear facilities last spring as actions that earned Israeli public goodwill while instilling fear in regional adversaries, TIME reported. "It would have been impossible to make a deal like this before," Trump told TIME about his Iran operations. "No President was willing to do it, and I was willing to do it. And by doing it, we had a different Middle East."

On The Edge

The ceasefire is looking more tenuous with every passing day:

Yet the ceasefire's fragility remains evident, with Hamas not returning all deceased Israeli hostages' remains, prompting Israel to close Rafah crossing and restrict aid, while social media footage shows Hamas gunmen executing rivals publicly, TIME reported. Israel accused the group of ceasefire violations on Oct. 19 after attacks on Israeli soldiers, with circumstances growing precarious enough within one week that Trump dispatched Vice President J.D. Vance regionally to preserve the agreement, according to TIME. Phase Two presents even thornier challenges encompassing Israeli military withdrawal scope, peacekeeping force structure, Hamas disarmament and postwar Gaza governance determination, TIME reported.

The US President is putting a lot of his leverage on the line and it appears to be working so far:

Trump anticipates Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel and join Abraham Accords by year's end, plans to visit Gaza soon as partners develop reconstruction strategies, and envisions expanded economic integration including Mediterranean-to-Persian Gulf rail lines, Israel-neighbor free-trade agreements, new regional energy grids, and Saudis vacationing in Tel Aviv, according to TIME. Trump's account positions this regional reset as impossible without one essential ingredient, TIME reported. "The most important thing," Trump told TIME, "is they have to respect the President of the United States. The Middle East has to understand that. It's almost the president more than the country

Trump was convinced to tackle Iran’s nuclear program, but only after Israel struck first and he saw it was the only way to handle the threat. Israel then opened the door for the current deal:

Netanyahu then targeted Hamas leaders in Doha, creating a crisis that Jared Kushner and Witkoff resolved not to waste, according to TIME. "We had an opening," Kushner told TIME. "It's just an element of how the President thinks." Working UN General Assembly circuits, the pair developed a 20-point framework with Qatari mediators, Egyptian and Turkish intermediaries, and Israeli officials demanding immediate ceasefire, hostage exchange, Israeli security guarantees, Gaza demilitarization, and new civilian governing authority, TIME reported.

Once a deal was on the table it was then up to Turkey and Qatar to get Hamas on board:

Regional leaders including Turks and Qataris helped pressure Hamas, with Turkey offering Hamas political leaders protection from Israeli strikes if they negotiated, according to Turkish scholar at Washington Institute for Near East Policy Soner Cagaptay, who told TIME, "Turkey has quite a bit of sway over Hamas' political wing, and I think Ankara used that influence." Trump applied pressure too, warning the group would face "complete obliteration" if it refused to disarm or subverted the deal, demanding return of every Israeli captive immediately rather than in stages, TIME reported. "I said, 'No more of that. You're giving us the ******** hostages, all of them,'" Trump told TIME.

He Stopped Netanyahu

According to Time, Trump is holding back Netanyahu and is holding things together now:

"It could have gone on for years. It would have gone on for years. But I stopped him, and everybody came together when I stopped him," Trump said about Netanyahu's prosecution of the war. Yet Israelis and Palestinians recognize Phase Two's success depends on Trump's engagement through his Netanyahu leverage and regional influence, with former Palestinian Authority negotiator Khaled Elgindy telling TIME, "If the guarantors of this process want it to succeed, it will succeed, particularly the Trump Administration."

The US President now has to figure out a way to keep everybody happy and in check to get the second phase of the deal moving. And with the Israeli Prime Minister and his government voting to annex Judea and Samaria things can get dicey. Trump could pull his support for Israel if that moves forward:

Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces right-wing minister rebellion seeking to block Palestinian statehood paths and annex West Bank, with Trump warning such moves would meet fierce US resistance, telling TIME, "It won't happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries. Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened."

In Trump’s mind he gave Israel the one thing that mattered most to them even if he couldn’t understand it:

"Israel was so intent on the hostages, I was actually surprised," Trump told TIME. "You would have thought they would have sacrificed the hostages in order to keep going, right? The people of Israel wanted the hostages more than they wanted anything else. And we got the hostages."

Trump has a tough road ahead although he thinks he is up for the job short term:

The question extends beyond the deal's fragile architecture surviving to whether Trump can sustain focus required for transforming temporary fighting pause into permanence, demanding the relentless attention Jimmy Carter brought to Camp David through long nights, endless details and exhausting diplomacy, according to TIME. When asked if new regional dynamics can outlast him, Trump responded without hesitation to TIME, "While I'm there, it's going to only get better and stronger, and it's going to be perfect. What happens after me? I can't tell you that."

I can tell you that he needs a little primer on how the God of Israel sees things and that means not dividing the land:

“For behold, in those days and at that time, when I restore the fortunes of Judah and Jerusalem, I will gather all the nations and bring them down to the Valley of Jehoshaphat. And I will enter into judgment with them there, on behalf of my people and my heritage Israel, because they have scattered them among the nations and have divided up my land… (Joel 3:1-2, ESV)

And Trump is not exempt from God letting him know how He feels by sending trouble to the US via nature and even political troubles as I’ve reported on recently. He is in a bind because of what he promised these Arab nations and I get that. All in all this keeps pointing to Israel having to end this war on its own as I’ve said over and over again. Even the powerful US may pull their support. I pray they don’t but I certainly see it happening next.